The high implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by mid-2027 reflects its security apparatus maintaining cohesion despite nationwide protests that began in late December 2025 over inflation and currency collapse, later turning political, with thousands reported killed and widespread arrests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death in a February 2026 airstrike led to a managed succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, while the Revolutionary Guards and other forces have suppressed dissent without major defections, even as US sanctions, naval measures, and limited strikes continue alongside stalled diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent internal hardliner rallies and executions signal tightened controls rather than fracture. While economic strain, proxy losses, and external pressure persist, historical patterns of regime endurance and the absence of elite splits underpin trader expectations; a sudden leadership crisis or coordinated external escalation could still alter the outlook before the deadline.