**Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Heightened tensions have centered on expanded U.S. sanctions rather than military action. In May 2026, the Trump administration issued Executive Order 14404, creating a new sanctions framework that led to designations targeting Cuban energy entities, including CUPET, and other actors tied to the regime. Additional measures in June and July further restricted oil imports, contributing to fuel shortages and blackouts on the island. Official statements and diplomatic channels have emphasized economic pressure, secondary sanctions risks for foreign parties, and legal actions such as indictments, consistent with longstanding U.S. policy tools short of direct intervention. No verified reports of troop deployments, invasion planning, or congressional authorizations for military force have emerged as of mid-August 2026, keeping the probability of an invasion low in the eyes of traders monitoring primary government actions and regional developments.