The U.S. conducted a targeted special operations strike on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas under Operation Absolute Resolve amid prior naval pressure and alleged narco-trafficking enforcement. This action, framed by the administration as limited rather than an occupation or regime-change campaign, prompted Delcy Rodríguez’s interim presidency, a declared state of emergency, exploratory diplomatic talks, and international scrutiny over war powers and sovereignty concerns. With no subsequent ground invasion or sustained military control established, trader consensus on full-scale invasion by late 2026 remains low. Key variables include congressional pushback, regional reactions, ongoing humanitarian strains from recent earthquakes, and administration statements distinguishing the Maduro operation from broader intervention.