The January 3, 2026, U.S. military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife shifted U.S.-Venezuela dynamics from confrontation to managed transition under interim President Delcy Rodríguez. That targeted raid, combined with ongoing strikes on drug vessels, security cooperation against groups such as Tren de Aragua, restored diplomatic ties, and U.S. acquisition of stakes in Venezuelan oil production, has reduced the perceived need for a broader offensive to secure influence or resources. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to a full-scale invasion by late 2026, as economic leverage, sanctions relief, and joint initiatives with the interim government have produced the functional outcomes previously associated with military occupation. Remaining risks center on transition talks stalling or renewed instability prompting escalation.