**Strong bilateral ties between the United States and the Philippines, rooted in their mutual defense treaty and shared regional security priorities, support the 66% implied probability for a Trump-Marcos meeting by December 31, 2026.** President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited the White House in July 2025 for the first such engagement in Trump’s second term, where the leaders discussed defense cooperation, trade adjustments, and Indo-Pacific strategy amid South China Sea tensions. Since then, Manila and Washington have sustained high-level contacts through defense dialogues, joint exercises, and policy alignment, with U.S. officials describing the Philippines as a key partner. Marcos currently chairs ASEAN and will host its November 2026 summit in Manila, creating potential windows for U.S. engagement. Recent developments, including Marcos’ October 2026 working visit to Singapore and bilateral talks with Poland, reflect active Philippine diplomacy but show no confirmed U.S. trip or summit plans before year-end. Trader consensus appears to weigh the alliance’s momentum and historical patterns of leader-level meetings against both sides’ crowded calendars. Resolution hinges on whether any in-person encounter occurs by the deadline, with no structural barriers such as eligibility issues.