**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, a critical artery for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and several million barrels per day of crude, primarily Saudi exports rerouted after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island (as of early September 2026) give the group enhanced surveillance and strike capability, prompting a further 46% drop in transits on some days and pushing volumes 60-70% below pre-crisis norms. Traders price a very low implied probability of zero transits on any single day because carriers continue selective passages when freight economics justify war-risk premiums, while most non-Saudi-linked vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains positive but sharply reduced daily counts (often 20-30 vessels recently, with tankers near single digits), elevated insurance costs, and upward pressure on Brent crude (near $108-109 per barrel). Key swing factors include any escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or Houthi targeting shifts that could tip marginal operators toward full avoidance.