Recent Houthi maritime blockades targeting Saudi-linked vessels, renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb. Weekly volumes fell to the 266–269 range in late July after a 24% drop from prior levels, with daily crossings often in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated war-risk premiums and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These developments, tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and breakdown of earlier ceasefires, have kept traffic well below historical norms and sustained the market’s heaviest weighting on the <25 bucket. With resolution approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst on the immediate horizon, trader consensus continues to price in persistent suppression through month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de agosto?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de agosto?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 21%
35-39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
21%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 21%
35-39 6%
$15,089 Vol.
$15,089 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
21%
35-39
$1,163 Vol.
6%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockades targeting Saudi-linked vessels, renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb. Weekly volumes fell to the 266–269 range in late July after a 24% drop from prior levels, with daily crossings often in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated war-risk premiums and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These developments, tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and breakdown of earlier ceasefires, have kept traffic well below historical norms and sustained the market’s heaviest weighting on the <25 bucket. With resolution approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst on the immediate horizon, trader consensus continues to price in persistent suppression through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$15,089Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockades targeting Saudi-linked vessels, renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb. Weekly volumes fell to the 266–269 range in late July after a 24% drop from prior levels, with daily crossings often in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated war-risk premiums and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These developments, tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and breakdown of earlier ceasefires, have kept traffic well below historical norms and sustained the market’s heaviest weighting on the <25 bucket. With resolution approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst on the immediate horizon, trader consensus continues to price in persistent suppression through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$15,089Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime blockades targeting Saudi-linked vessels, renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb. Weekly volumes fell to the 266–269 range in late July after a 24% drop from prior levels, with daily crossings often in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated war-risk premiums and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These developments, tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and breakdown of earlier ceasefires, have kept traffic well below historical norms and sustained the market’s heaviest weighting on the <25 bucket. With resolution approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst on the immediate horizon, trader consensus continues to price in persistent suppression through month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes