**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk’s established baseline posting cadence for short three-day windows, with the 40-64 bracket holding a commanding 69.5% implied probability.** Recent comparable periods (including the window ending August 29) have repeatedly resolved in this range, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 13–20 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts when no major political flashpoint or product launch drives extended threads. Current live trackers show roughly 25 posts logged through midday August 30, placing the period on track for a moderate total once the final day is added. Activity has focused on routine commentary around Grok updates, SpaceX milestones, and light engagement rather than high-volume exchanges, keeping volume well below the 65–89 tier that carries only 24.5% implied odds. The short Labor Day weekend window and absence of breaking regulatory or viral developments reinforce the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid band. Traders are pricing in continuity with the recent pattern of contained activity rather than a sudden surge, though any late escalation in replies or reposts could still test the upper edge of the favorite.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 70%
65-89 25%
90-114 2.4%
115-139 <1%
$346,169 Vol.
$346,169 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<40
<1%
40-64
70%
65-89
25%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 70%
65-89 25%
90-114 2.4%
115-139 <1%
$346,169 Vol.
$346,169 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<40
$90,725 Vol.
<1%
40-64
$48,938 Vol.
70%
65-89
$56,337 Vol.
25%
90-114
$60,166 Vol.
2%
115-139
$51,209 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$18,858 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$11,912 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,938 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,811 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk’s established baseline posting cadence for short three-day windows, with the 40-64 bracket holding a commanding 69.5% implied probability.** Recent comparable periods (including the window ending August 29) have repeatedly resolved in this range, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 13–20 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts when no major political flashpoint or product launch drives extended threads.
Current live trackers show roughly 25 posts logged through midday August 30, placing the period on track for a moderate total once the final day is added. Activity has focused on routine commentary around Grok updates, SpaceX milestones, and light engagement rather than high-volume exchanges, keeping volume well below the 65–89 tier that carries only 24.5% implied odds.
The short Labor Day weekend window and absence of breaking regulatory or viral developments reinforce the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid band. Traders are pricing in continuity with the recent pattern of contained activity rather than a sudden surge, though any late escalation in replies or reposts could still test the upper edge of the favorite.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$346,169Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk’s established baseline posting cadence for short three-day windows, with the 40-64 bracket holding a commanding 69.5% implied probability.** Recent comparable periods (including the window ending August 29) have repeatedly resolved in this range, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 13–20 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts when no major political flashpoint or product launch drives extended threads.
Current live trackers show roughly 25 posts logged through midday August 30, placing the period on track for a moderate total once the final day is added. Activity has focused on routine commentary around Grok updates, SpaceX milestones, and light engagement rather than high-volume exchanges, keeping volume well below the 65–89 tier that carries only 24.5% implied odds.
The short Labor Day weekend window and absence of breaking regulatory or viral developments reinforce the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid band. Traders are pricing in continuity with the recent pattern of contained activity rather than a sudden surge, though any late escalation in replies or reposts could still test the upper edge of the favorite.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$346,169Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on Elon Musk’s established baseline posting cadence for short three-day windows, with the 40-64 bracket holding a commanding 69.5% implied probability.** Recent comparable periods (including the window ending August 29) have repeatedly resolved in this range, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 13–20 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts when no major political flashpoint or product launch drives extended threads. Current live trackers show roughly 25 posts logged through midday August 30, placing the period on track for a moderate total once the final day is added. Activity has focused on routine commentary around Grok updates, SpaceX milestones, and light engagement rather than high-volume exchanges, keeping volume well below the 65–89 tier that carries only 24.5% implied odds. The short Labor Day weekend window and absence of breaking regulatory or viral developments reinforce the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid band. Traders are pricing in continuity with the recent pattern of contained activity rather than a sudden surge, though any late escalation in replies or reposts could still test the upper edge of the favorite.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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