Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on Gemini 3.2 releasing May 19, driven by recent leaks showing the lightweight large language model—likely Gemini 3.2 Flash—briefly appearing in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, alongside testing on Eleuther AI Arena benchmarks demonstrating coding and 3D upgrades. These developments, including Vertex AI deprecation notices for prior Flash versions and A/B tests, signal Google's ramp-up ahead of its I/O keynote on May 19-20, where historical patterns favor major AI announcements. Lower odds on May 18 or earlier reflect logistical hurdles pre-event, while minimal probability on later dates or no release by May 31 underscores skin-in-the-game confidence in this timeline despite unconfirmed official statements; watch for potential preview-only rollout or last-minute slips.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.3%
May 17 1.5%
$282,781 Vol.
$282,781 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
2%
May 18
5%
May 19
90%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.3%
May 17 1.5%
$282,781 Vol.
$282,781 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 15
$7,144 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$6,108 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$8,391 Vol.
2%
May 18
$34,180 Vol.
5%
May 19
$105,084 Vol.
90%
May 20
$15,386 Vol.
1%
May 21
$9,674 Vol.
1%
May 22
$11,156 Vol.
1%
May 23
$3,483 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,715 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,271 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$3,940 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$2,569 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$5,620 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,006 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,166 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on Gemini 3.2 releasing May 19, driven by recent leaks showing the lightweight large language model—likely Gemini 3.2 Flash—briefly appearing in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, alongside testing on Eleuther AI Arena benchmarks demonstrating coding and 3D upgrades. These developments, including Vertex AI deprecation notices for prior Flash versions and A/B tests, signal Google's ramp-up ahead of its I/O keynote on May 19-20, where historical patterns favor major AI announcements. Lower odds on May 18 or earlier reflect logistical hurdles pre-event, while minimal probability on later dates or no release by May 31 underscores skin-in-the-game confidence in this timeline despite unconfirmed official statements; watch for potential preview-only rollout or last-minute slips.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$282,781Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on Gemini 3.2 releasing May 19, driven by recent leaks showing the lightweight large language model—likely Gemini 3.2 Flash—briefly appearing in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, alongside testing on Eleuther AI Arena benchmarks demonstrating coding and 3D upgrades. These developments, including Vertex AI deprecation notices for prior Flash versions and A/B tests, signal Google's ramp-up ahead of its I/O keynote on May 19-20, where historical patterns favor major AI announcements. Lower odds on May 18 or earlier reflect logistical hurdles pre-event, while minimal probability on later dates or no release by May 31 underscores skin-in-the-game confidence in this timeline despite unconfirmed official statements; watch for potential preview-only rollout or last-minute slips.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$282,781Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability on Gemini 3.2 releasing May 19, driven by recent leaks showing the lightweight large language model—likely Gemini 3.2 Flash—briefly appearing in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, alongside testing on Eleuther AI Arena benchmarks demonstrating coding and 3D upgrades. These developments, including Vertex AI deprecation notices for prior Flash versions and A/B tests, signal Google's ramp-up ahead of its I/O keynote on May 19-20, where historical patterns favor major AI announcements. Lower odds on May 18 or earlier reflect logistical hurdles pre-event, while minimal probability on later dates or no release by May 31 underscores skin-in-the-game confidence in this timeline despite unconfirmed official statements; watch for potential preview-only rollout or last-minute slips.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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