Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 89.5% implied probability for Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O keynote where new large language models are traditionally unveiled, propelled by leaks over the past week showing Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly in the Gemini app's model selector, leaked API endpoints with aggressive pricing ($0.25 per million input tokens), and shared 3.2 Pro outputs demonstrating advanced reasoning. Building on Gemini 3.1 Pro's low hallucination rates on benchmarks like BridgeBench, traders anticipate fixes to tool calling weaknesses versus rivals GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7, though a preview-only launch or minor delay to May 18 (5%) could temper full rollout expectations ahead of the May 19-20 event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.1%
May 17 1.5%
$284,998 Vol.
$284,998 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 15
<1%
May 16
1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
90%
May 20
1%
May 21
<1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.1%
May 17 1.5%
$284,998 Vol.
$284,998 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 15
$7,432 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$6,495 Vol.
1%
May 17
$8,391 Vol.
1%
May 18
$34,236 Vol.
5%
May 19
$106,042 Vol.
90%
May 20
$15,414 Vol.
1%
May 21
$9,674 Vol.
<1%
May 22
$11,236 Vol.
1%
May 23
$3,483 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,915 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,471 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$3,941 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$2,589 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$5,620 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,006 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,166 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 89.5% implied probability for Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O keynote where new large language models are traditionally unveiled, propelled by leaks over the past week showing Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly in the Gemini app's model selector, leaked API endpoints with aggressive pricing ($0.25 per million input tokens), and shared 3.2 Pro outputs demonstrating advanced reasoning. Building on Gemini 3.1 Pro's low hallucination rates on benchmarks like BridgeBench, traders anticipate fixes to tool calling weaknesses versus rivals GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7, though a preview-only launch or minor delay to May 18 (5%) could temper full rollout expectations ahead of the May 19-20 event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$284,998Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 89.5% implied probability for Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O keynote where new large language models are traditionally unveiled, propelled by leaks over the past week showing Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly in the Gemini app's model selector, leaked API endpoints with aggressive pricing ($0.25 per million input tokens), and shared 3.2 Pro outputs demonstrating advanced reasoning. Building on Gemini 3.1 Pro's low hallucination rates on benchmarks like BridgeBench, traders anticipate fixes to tool calling weaknesses versus rivals GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7, though a preview-only launch or minor delay to May 18 (5%) could temper full rollout expectations ahead of the May 19-20 event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$284,998Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 89.5% implied probability for Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O keynote where new large language models are traditionally unveiled, propelled by leaks over the past week showing Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly in the Gemini app's model selector, leaked API endpoints with aggressive pricing ($0.25 per million input tokens), and shared 3.2 Pro outputs demonstrating advanced reasoning. Building on Gemini 3.1 Pro's low hallucination rates on benchmarks like BridgeBench, traders anticipate fixes to tool calling weaknesses versus rivals GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7, though a preview-only launch or minor delay to May 18 (5%) could temper full rollout expectations ahead of the May 19-20 event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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