**Trader consensus centers on a maximum temperature of 15–17 °C for Wellington on 25 August 2026, with 16 °C carrying the highest implied probability.** This range reflects current short-range model guidance from agencies such as MetService and NIWA, which forecast mainly fine conditions under northwesterly flow, yielding daytime highs near 15 °C with a modest chance of reaching 16–17 °C if mixing is efficient. Wellington’s winter climatology features average August highs of roughly 12–14 °C; the elevated outlook stems from a post-polar-air high-pressure ridge that has replaced earlier cold outbreaks, allowing milder maritime air to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, supporting the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 15–17 °C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers below 14 °C or above 18 °C. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the final data points likely to influence any late shifts in positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 25 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 25 de agosto?
16°C 56%
17°C 26%
15°C 14%
18°C 4%
NUEVO
$13,737 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,737 Vol.
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
14%
16°C
56%
17°C
26%
18°C
4%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 56%
17°C 26%
15°C 14%
18°C 4%
NUEVO
$13,737 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,737 Vol.
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
$650 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,087 Vol.
2%
15°C
$2,326 Vol.
14%
16°C
$3,891 Vol.
56%
17°C
$2,304 Vol.
26%
18°C
$967 Vol.
4%
19°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a maximum temperature of 15–17 °C for Wellington on 25 August 2026, with 16 °C carrying the highest implied probability.** This range reflects current short-range model guidance from agencies such as MetService and NIWA, which forecast mainly fine conditions under northwesterly flow, yielding daytime highs near 15 °C with a modest chance of reaching 16–17 °C if mixing is efficient.
Wellington’s winter climatology features average August highs of roughly 12–14 °C; the elevated outlook stems from a post-polar-air high-pressure ridge that has replaced earlier cold outbreaks, allowing milder maritime air to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, supporting the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 15–17 °C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers below 14 °C or above 18 °C. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the final data points likely to influence any late shifts in positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$13,737Fecha de finalización
25 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a maximum temperature of 15–17 °C for Wellington on 25 August 2026, with 16 °C carrying the highest implied probability.** This range reflects current short-range model guidance from agencies such as MetService and NIWA, which forecast mainly fine conditions under northwesterly flow, yielding daytime highs near 15 °C with a modest chance of reaching 16–17 °C if mixing is efficient.
Wellington’s winter climatology features average August highs of roughly 12–14 °C; the elevated outlook stems from a post-polar-air high-pressure ridge that has replaced earlier cold outbreaks, allowing milder maritime air to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, supporting the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 15–17 °C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers below 14 °C or above 18 °C. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the final data points likely to influence any late shifts in positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$13,737Fecha de finalización
25 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a maximum temperature of 15–17 °C for Wellington on 25 August 2026, with 16 °C carrying the highest implied probability.** This range reflects current short-range model guidance from agencies such as MetService and NIWA, which forecast mainly fine conditions under northwesterly flow, yielding daytime highs near 15 °C with a modest chance of reaching 16–17 °C if mixing is efficient. Wellington’s winter climatology features average August highs of roughly 12–14 °C; the elevated outlook stems from a post-polar-air high-pressure ridge that has replaced earlier cold outbreaks, allowing milder maritime air to moderate temperatures. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, supporting the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 15–17 °C band while assigning minimal weight to outliers below 14 °C or above 18 °C. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the final data points likely to influence any late shifts in positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes