Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$61,669 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
$61,669 Vol.
31 de agosto
$49,933 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volumen
$61,669Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$61,669Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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