Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?
¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?
$216,568 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4,6%
95%
4,8%
45%
5,0%
26%
5,2%
11%
5,5%
7%
5,7%
6%
6,0%
4%
$216,568 Vol.
4,6%
$37,797 Vol.
95%
4,8%
$47,611 Vol.
45%
5,0%
$50,065 Vol.
26%
5,2%
$9,852 Vol.
11%
5,5%
$1,471 Vol.
7%
5,7%
$3,229 Vol.
6%
6,0%
$2,152 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$216,568Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$216,568Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes