With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
14–16 35%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 8.9%
$1,330,666 Vol.
$1,330,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
2%
8–10
2%
11–13
23%
14–16
35%
17–19
22%
20+
9%
14–16 35%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 8.9%
$1,330,666 Vol.
$1,330,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
$78,994 Vol.
2%
8–10
$134,372 Vol.
2%
11–13
$412,092 Vol.
23%
14–16
$186,586 Vol.
35%
17–19
$211,045 Vol.
22%
20+
$64,639 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,330,666Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,330,666Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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