Traders assign a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and persistent inflationary pressures through mid-2026. Recent labor market data with unemployment holding near 4% and CPI readings remaining above the 2% target have anchored expectations that the FOMC will keep the federal funds rate steady. This pricing aligns with elevated Treasury yields and limited evidence of cooling demand, shifting consensus away from earlier easing forecasts. Upcoming June 2026 FOMC communications and second-quarter GDP figures represent key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust the current market-implied path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0 (0 bps) 70.5%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 16%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 7%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 2.7%
$26,923,038 Vol.
$26,923,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
71%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
16%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
7%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
1%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 pb)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
<1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.5%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 16%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 7%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 2.7%
$26,923,038 Vol.
$26,923,038 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,188,540 Vol.
71%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
$1,244,767 Vol.
16%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
$1,204,248 Vol.
7%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$1,113,801 Vol.
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
$1,196,177 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
$1,417,766 Vol.
1%
6 (150 pb)
$2,490,532 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,324,074 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
$1,733,360 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
$2,454,875 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
$3,123,511 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
$3,274,019 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
$2,163,983 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and persistent inflationary pressures through mid-2026. Recent labor market data with unemployment holding near 4% and CPI readings remaining above the 2% target have anchored expectations that the FOMC will keep the federal funds rate steady. This pricing aligns with elevated Treasury yields and limited evidence of cooling demand, shifting consensus away from earlier easing forecasts. Upcoming June 2026 FOMC communications and second-quarter GDP figures represent key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust the current market-implied path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volumen
$26,923,038Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and persistent inflationary pressures through mid-2026. Recent labor market data with unemployment holding near 4% and CPI readings remaining above the 2% target have anchored expectations that the FOMC will keep the federal funds rate steady. This pricing aligns with elevated Treasury yields and limited evidence of cooling demand, shifting consensus away from earlier easing forecasts. Upcoming June 2026 FOMC communications and second-quarter GDP figures represent key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust the current market-implied path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$26,923,038Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 70.5% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and persistent inflationary pressures through mid-2026. Recent labor market data with unemployment holding near 4% and CPI readings remaining above the 2% target have anchored expectations that the FOMC will keep the federal funds rate steady. This pricing aligns with elevated Treasury yields and limited evidence of cooling demand, shifting consensus away from earlier easing forecasts. Upcoming June 2026 FOMC communications and second-quarter GDP figures represent key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust the current market-implied path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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