Recent Houthi missile strikes, including a deadly August attack on a commercial vessel, combined with renewed blockade threats and Red Sea insecurity, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushing shippers toward longer Cape routes. Daily crossings have fluctuated between roughly 23 and 43 amid these events, with tanker volumes down sharply year-over-year as operators broadcast defensive signals or avoid the strait. This uncertainty creates tight competition between the <180 and 180-199 buckets, where the outcome hinges on whether the latest incidents trigger accelerated rerouting or merely temporary dips before volumes stabilize near recent weekly averages around 200-226. Market-implied odds reflect traders' real-capital assessment of these security and cost dynamics rather than any fixed projection.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 10 de agosto?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 10 de agosto?
<180 44%
180-199 32%
220+ 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,409 Vol.
$11,409 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
44%
180-199
29%
200-219
7%
220+
13%
<180 44%
180-199 32%
220+ 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,409 Vol.
$11,409 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
$5,540 Vol.
44%
180-199
$1,919 Vol.
29%
200-219
$749 Vol.
7%
220+
$3,200 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes, including a deadly August attack on a commercial vessel, combined with renewed blockade threats and Red Sea insecurity, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushing shippers toward longer Cape routes. Daily crossings have fluctuated between roughly 23 and 43 amid these events, with tanker volumes down sharply year-over-year as operators broadcast defensive signals or avoid the strait. This uncertainty creates tight competition between the <180 and 180-199 buckets, where the outcome hinges on whether the latest incidents trigger accelerated rerouting or merely temporary dips before volumes stabilize near recent weekly averages around 200-226. Market-implied odds reflect traders' real-capital assessment of these security and cost dynamics rather than any fixed projection.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$11,409Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes, including a deadly August attack on a commercial vessel, combined with renewed blockade threats and Red Sea insecurity, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushing shippers toward longer Cape routes. Daily crossings have fluctuated between roughly 23 and 43 amid these events, with tanker volumes down sharply year-over-year as operators broadcast defensive signals or avoid the strait. This uncertainty creates tight competition between the <180 and 180-199 buckets, where the outcome hinges on whether the latest incidents trigger accelerated rerouting or merely temporary dips before volumes stabilize near recent weekly averages around 200-226. Market-implied odds reflect traders' real-capital assessment of these security and cost dynamics rather than any fixed projection.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$11,409Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi missile strikes, including a deadly August attack on a commercial vessel, combined with renewed blockade threats and Red Sea insecurity, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushing shippers toward longer Cape routes. Daily crossings have fluctuated between roughly 23 and 43 amid these events, with tanker volumes down sharply year-over-year as operators broadcast defensive signals or avoid the strait. This uncertainty creates tight competition between the <180 and 180-199 buckets, where the outcome hinges on whether the latest incidents trigger accelerated rerouting or merely temporary dips before volumes stabilize near recent weekly averages around 200-226. Market-implied odds reflect traders' real-capital assessment of these security and cost dynamics rather than any fixed projection.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes