Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers and threats of an extended naval blockade, have driven daily Strait of Hormuz transits to single digits or low teens in early-to-mid August—far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–140 vessels. Kpler tracking data confirm weekly aggregates clustering in the low-to-mid range through August 10–16, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting deterring commercial traffic. This underpins the 64% implied probability on the 25–49 outcome as the market consensus, while the 35% on sub-25 captures further downside from escalation risks. Stalled diplomatic efforts limit near-term rebound potential before week resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 10 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 10 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
25-49 64%
<25 35%
50-74 1.6%
75-99 <1%
$41,560 Vol.
$41,560 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
35%
25-49
64%
50-74
2%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 64%
<25 35%
50-74 1.6%
75-99 <1%
$41,560 Vol.
$41,560 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
$15,774 Vol.
35%
25-49
$15,942 Vol.
64%
50-74
$6,984 Vol.
2%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers and threats of an extended naval blockade, have driven daily Strait of Hormuz transits to single digits or low teens in early-to-mid August—far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–140 vessels. Kpler tracking data confirm weekly aggregates clustering in the low-to-mid range through August 10–16, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting deterring commercial traffic. This underpins the 64% implied probability on the 25–49 outcome as the market consensus, while the 35% on sub-25 captures further downside from escalation risks. Stalled diplomatic efforts limit near-term rebound potential before week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$41,560Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers and threats of an extended naval blockade, have driven daily Strait of Hormuz transits to single digits or low teens in early-to-mid August—far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–140 vessels. Kpler tracking data confirm weekly aggregates clustering in the low-to-mid range through August 10–16, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting deterring commercial traffic. This underpins the 64% implied probability on the 25–49 outcome as the market consensus, while the 35% on sub-25 captures further downside from escalation risks. Stalled diplomatic efforts limit near-term rebound potential before week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$41,560Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers and threats of an extended naval blockade, have driven daily Strait of Hormuz transits to single digits or low teens in early-to-mid August—far below the pre-crisis baseline of 60–140 vessels. Kpler tracking data confirm weekly aggregates clustering in the low-to-mid range through August 10–16, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting deterring commercial traffic. This underpins the 64% implied probability on the 25–49 outcome as the market consensus, while the 35% on sub-25 captures further downside from escalation risks. Stalled diplomatic efforts limit near-term rebound potential before week resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes