**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a de facto naval blockade have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly transit bucket as the clear market leader at 74.5% implied probability.** Daily crossings have clustered in the single digits to low teens since early August, according to Kpler and Portwatch tracking, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 60–140 vessels per day. Recent attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 8 and 13, combined with stalled peace talks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, have further deterred transits and encouraged AIS-dark routing or outright avoidance. These conditions make totals below 25 plausible but less likely than the mid-20s to mid-40s range, while bins above 50 carry negligible probability given the persistent security and routing constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 10 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 10 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$56,105 Vol.
$56,105 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
26%
25-49
74%
50-74
1%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 74%
<25 26%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$56,105 Vol.
$56,105 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<25
$19,933 Vol.
26%
25-49
$22,118 Vol.
74%
50-74
$11,194 Vol.
1%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a de facto naval blockade have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly transit bucket as the clear market leader at 74.5% implied probability.** Daily crossings have clustered in the single digits to low teens since early August, according to Kpler and Portwatch tracking, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 60–140 vessels per day. Recent attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 8 and 13, combined with stalled peace talks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, have further deterred transits and encouraged AIS-dark routing or outright avoidance. These conditions make totals below 25 plausible but less likely than the mid-20s to mid-40s range, while bins above 50 carry negligible probability given the persistent security and routing constraints.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$56,105Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a de facto naval blockade have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly transit bucket as the clear market leader at 74.5% implied probability.** Daily crossings have clustered in the single digits to low teens since early August, according to Kpler and Portwatch tracking, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 60–140 vessels per day. Recent attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 8 and 13, combined with stalled peace talks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, have further deterred transits and encouraged AIS-dark routing or outright avoidance. These conditions make totals below 25 plausible but less likely than the mid-20s to mid-40s range, while bins above 50 carry negligible probability given the persistent security and routing constraints.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$56,105Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a de facto naval blockade have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels, positioning the 25-49 weekly transit bucket as the clear market leader at 74.5% implied probability.** Daily crossings have clustered in the single digits to low teens since early August, according to Kpler and Portwatch tracking, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 60–140 vessels per day. Recent attacks on ADNOC-linked tankers on August 8 and 13, combined with stalled peace talks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums, have further deterred transits and encouraged AIS-dark routing or outright avoidance. These conditions make totals below 25 plausible but less likely than the mid-20s to mid-40s range, while bins above 50 carry negligible probability given the persistent security and routing constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes