**No federal law banning sports prediction markets appears likely to pass in 2026.** Ongoing federal-state jurisdictional disputes center on whether CFTC-regulated event contracts qualify as swaps preempting state gambling rules, with multiple lawsuits, appeals, and a pending Supreme Court petition from New Jersey and the NFL. A bipartisan Senate bill introduced in March 2026 to restrict sports contracts on CFTC platforms has seen no significant further action. The Trump administration has signaled support for CFTC authority, while states like Minnesota have enacted targeted restrictions only to face federal court injunctions. Recent developments emphasize litigation over new prohibitive legislation, leaving trader consensus anchored in the absence of advancing federal measures.