Recent GFS and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C in Amsterdam on August 26, driven by persistent easterly flow, rising dew points near 13–16°C, and increasing low-level cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 16°C (43%) and 15°C (29%), well above the late-August climatological average low of ~12.7°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range runs showing partly cloudy conditions and light southeasterly winds, which should prevent deeper cooling; any shift toward clearer skies or stronger advection could push the outcome toward 14°C or lower, while greater moisture and showers would favor the upper end of the favored range. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Ámsterdam el 26 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Ámsterdam el 26 de agosto?
16°C 47%
12°C or below 33%
15°C 28%
17°C 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 ago 2026
12°C or below
33%
13°C
8%
14°C
11%
15°C
28%
16°C
47%
17°C
25%
18°C
9%
19°C
15%
20°C
14%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
7%
16°C 47%
12°C or below 33%
15°C 28%
17°C 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 ago 2026
12°C or below
$145 Vol.
33%
13°C
$90 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
11%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
47%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
9%
19°C
$80 Vol.
15%
20°C
$135 Vol.
14%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C in Amsterdam on August 26, driven by persistent easterly flow, rising dew points near 13–16°C, and increasing low-level cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 16°C (43%) and 15°C (29%), well above the late-August climatological average low of ~12.7°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range runs showing partly cloudy conditions and light southeasterly winds, which should prevent deeper cooling; any shift toward clearer skies or stronger advection could push the outcome toward 14°C or lower, while greater moisture and showers would favor the upper end of the favored range. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$455Fecha de finalización
26 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C in Amsterdam on August 26, driven by persistent easterly flow, rising dew points near 13–16°C, and increasing low-level cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 16°C (43%) and 15°C (29%), well above the late-August climatological average low of ~12.7°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range runs showing partly cloudy conditions and light southeasterly winds, which should prevent deeper cooling; any shift toward clearer skies or stronger advection could push the outcome toward 14°C or lower, while greater moisture and showers would favor the upper end of the favored range. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$455Fecha de finalización
26 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ECMWF model consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C in Amsterdam on August 26, driven by persistent easterly flow, rising dew points near 13–16°C, and increasing low-level cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 16°C (43%) and 15°C (29%), well above the late-August climatological average low of ~12.7°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range runs showing partly cloudy conditions and light southeasterly winds, which should prevent deeper cooling; any shift toward clearer skies or stronger advection could push the outcome toward 14°C or lower, while greater moisture and showers would favor the upper end of the favored range. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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