Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on August 29 point to a mild overnight minimum near 17 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderate southwesterly flow that limits radiative cooling. These conditions suppress the sharper drops typical under clear, calm skies, keeping temperatures above the long-term late-August average low of roughly 14 °C. Hourly profiles show the coldest readings occurring between 03:00–07:00 BST at 16–17 °C before gradual warming under daytime cloud and rain. Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 17 °C, mirrors this narrow forecast range and the low likelihood of either stronger high pressure (favoring 15 °C or lower) or clearer breaks that could push the minimum to 18 °C or above. Updated model runs through the morning of August 28 have reinforced this outlook with minimal spread, anchoring the market-implied probabilities.