Forecast models from major centers show Milan’s overnight minimum on August 25 clustered between 17 °C and 20 °C under light easterly flow, variable cloud cover, and modest humidity, producing the tight market clustering around 17–19 °C. Radiative cooling rates overnight will hinge on whether scattered clouds clear enough for enhanced longwave emission or whether increasing low-level moisture limits the drop, while the urban heat-island effect in central Milan typically adds 1–2 °C relative to rural stations used in official verification. Recent ensemble runs exhibit modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and 10 m winds, keeping the three leading outcomes nearly even; updated high-resolution guidance and official Italian meteorological service briefings expected later today remain the key near-term catalysts.