Recent polls show the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead near 30 percent among decided voters, driven by strong support among francophones and widespread desire for government change ahead of the October 5 election. The Coalition Avenir Québec has dropped sharply in the final week, falling to fourth place amid post-debate shifts and controversy over foreign interference claims, while the Parti Libéral du Québec holds second and the Parti Conservateur du Québec edges third. Seat projections now place the PQ comfortably above the 64-seat majority threshold. With advance voting underway and most voters reporting finalized choices, the implied probability reflects this momentum. Late developments such as unexpected turnout swings or regional surprises could still alter narrow margins in key ridings before election day.