The trader consensus around a 90% probability that Donald Trump remains in office through 2027 stems primarily from the high procedural thresholds for removal under the U.S. Constitution. Impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction, a bar that has not been crossed in prior terms even amid divided government. No active congressional investigations or bipartisan support for such action have emerged in the current session. Health-related invocation of the 25th Amendment would require cabinet or vice-presidential initiation and faces similar institutional hurdles absent clear incapacity. With the next midterm elections still more than a year away and no scheduled transfer of power until 2029, recent legislative and executive continuity has reinforced stability expectations among market participants.