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icon for ¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?
Tech·Arma Nuclear

¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?
Tech·Arma Nuclear

¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?

Sí

14% probabilidad
Polymarket

$25,136 Vol.

Sí

14% probabilidad
Polymarket

$25,136 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite accelerated NRC reviews and Trump-era executive orders streamlining advanced reactor pathways, trader sentiment favors no full commercial license grant in 2026 due to typical 18-48 month timelines for new construction or operating approvals. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s Natrium receiving a construction permit in March 2026 and multiple DOE pilot authorizations targeting criticality by July 2026, yet these remain distinct from NRC commercial licensing. Focus has centered on existing reactor renewals—13 completed in 2025—with proposed Part 53 rules and environmental streamlining not fully effective until later. Key catalysts ahead include further NRC decisions on pending applications and any late-year operating license issuances that could shift the market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$25,136
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite accelerated NRC reviews and Trump-era executive orders streamlining advanced reactor pathways, trader sentiment favors no full commercial license grant in 2026 due to typical 18-48 month timelines for new construction or operating approvals. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s Natrium receiving a construction permit in March 2026 and multiple DOE pilot authorizations targeting criticality by July 2026, yet these remain distinct from NRC commercial licensing. Focus has centered on existing reactor renewals—13 completed in 2025—with proposed Part 53 rules and environmental streamlining not fully effective until later. Key catalysts ahead include further NRC decisions on pending applications and any late-year operating license issuances that could shift the market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$25,136
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Estados Unidos concede licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" con 14%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 14¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 14% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" ha generado $25.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" es "¿Estados Unidos concede licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" con 14%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 14% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos otorga licencia para un nuevo reactor nuclear en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.