Recent NRC actions, including the March 2026 issuance of a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium reactor and the finalization of the Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework effective late April, have streamlined pathways for advanced reactors yet still require extended review cycles for full operating licenses. Historical precedents show combined license timelines routinely exceed 12–24 months even under accelerated rules, and no new commercial reactor has secured a complete operating license in 2026 to date. Trader consensus at 77% probability for “No” reflects the remaining steps—design certification, inspections, and safety evaluations—plus limited pre-2026 applications under the new framework, with potential catalysts limited to faster-than-expected Part 53 implementations or DOE pilot approvals that could shift sentiment only if completed before year-end.