Iran's recent insistence on five preconditions—ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, lifting US sanctions, releasing frozen assets, providing war reparations, and recognizing its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—has stalled direct diplomatic negotiations amid the 2026 Middle East conflict, following failed indirect talks in Geneva. US Vice President JD Vance stated today that progress continues in backchannel discussions as Iran reviews a US proposal previously deemed unacceptable by President Trump. No high-level meeting has occurred in the past month, with traders monitoring Trump's May 14-15 summit with China's Xi Jinping, where Iran features prominently given Beijing's recent hosting of Tehran's foreign minister and oil purchases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research and ballistic missile support
May 31 dips to 24%4%
The imposition of fresh sanctions reinforced a confrontational US stance, further diminishing expectations of a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Trump dismisses Tehran’s latest peace proposal but says diplomatic solution still “very possible” ahead of his meeting with Xi Jinping
May 15 dips to 2%1%
Despite dismissing the proposal, Trump’s cautious optimism was insufficient to revive market confidence, which remained near its lowest point.
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s peace counteroffer as “stupid” and “garbage”
May 31 dips to 24%4%
Trump’s dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal and warning of retaliation signaled deteriorating diplomatic prospects, driving the
Iran submits counterproposal to US via Pakistani mediators; Trump calls it “totally unacceptable”
May 31 drops to 28%14%
Iran’s counterproposal and Trump’s harsh rejection highlighted diplomatic deadlock, pushing market odds sharply lower.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to discuss Iran during upcoming summit
May 31 dips to 42%3%
Anticipation of high-level US-China talks including Iran issues provided modest support but no direct US-Iran meeting news kept
Trump calls Iran’s peace proposal “totally unacceptable” and labels ceasefire “on life support”
May 15 drops to 10%7%
Trump’s harsh rejection of Iran’s peace offer and bleak assessment of the ceasefire severely undermined market expectations for a diplomatic meeting.
Polymarket data shows the market jumps to 79% after U.S.
June 30 rises to 79%2%
officials publicly confirm ongoing talks amid “Operation Epic Fury,” reviving confidence that a meeting will occur by June 30
US Secretary of State Rubio says Washington awaits Iran’s response to ceasefire proposals
May 31 drops to 31%12%
Rubio’s statement of waiting for Iran’s reply amid ongoing clashes suggested stalled negotiations, lowering market confidence.
Iran confirms receipt of the latest U.S.
June 30 rises to 76%3%
June 30 peace proposal and says talks are “close” to a final agreement, pushing the market to its highest level of the period
U.S. State Department confirms it has received Iran’s review of the U.S.
peace proposal but notes no formal agreement yet, stabilising the
US Defense Secretary warns Iran over support for Houthis, signaling tougher US stance
May 31 drops to 43%8%
Public US warnings of consequences for Iran’s regional proxy support indicated a hardening US position, reducing optimism for imminent diplomacy.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio states the U.S.
June 30 drops to 70%6%
will not wait for a written agreement before a diplomatic solution, reinforcing belief that a meeting could still occur
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy asserts control over Strait of Hormuz navigation
May 31 plunges to 29%15%
Iran’s declaration of control over the strategic waterway heightened tensions, undermining prospects for diplomatic progress and causing a
US‑Iran indirect contacts resume via envoy Steve Witkoff;
June 30 surges to 80%22%
Iran begins reviewing Washington’s latest nuclear‑curb response, sparking a sharp rise in odds
President Trump announces temporary pause of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to allow diplomatic efforts, but maintains overall pressure
May 15 surges to 32%20%
This move briefly raised hopes for diplomacy, causing a temporary
President Trump announces “very good talks” with Iran and optimistic diplomatic signals
May 31 surges to 44%16%
Trump’s positive remarks on recent talks and Iran’s review of US peace plan briefly boosted market expectations for a diplomatic meeting.
Trump announces a temporary halt to “Project Freedom” and says the U.S.
May 31 jumps to 38%11%
is “close to a one‑page memorandum” with Iran, reviving hopes of an in‑person meeting and pushing odds sharply higher
CNN live‑update reports Iran reviewing the U.S.
June 30 surges to 80%24%
proposal and “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators; President Trump pauses “Project Freedom,” boosting confidence
Iranian hard‑liners issue a public statement rejecting U.S.
June 30 plunges to 56%24%
demands, and the U.S. maintains the Strait‑of‑Hormuz blockade, causing the market to slip
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna citing "technical reasons"
May 15 drops to 12%8%
This cancellation was interpreted as a setback, reducing market confidence in a face-to-face summit before the deadline.
Iranian FM Araghchi cancels a planned May 4 meeting with U.S.
May 31 drops to 31%13%
envoys citing “technical reasons,” causing a sharp drop in market confidence
Iran submits a new peace proposal via Pakistan;
June 30 drops to 57%9%
U.S. officials acknowledge receipt, reviving optimism that a meeting could be arranged before the deadline
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with U.S.
June 30 drops to 63%6%
officials, citing “technical reasons”
Reuters analysis warns US may extend the 30‑day cease‑fire deadline, suggesting continued military pressure;
June 30 dips to 69%2%
traders pull back, keeping odds steady around 69 %
Cryptobriefing notes Iran is reviewing Trump’s negotiation request, hinting at a possible diplomatic shift;
June 30 rises to 71%2%
market reacts with a small rise
Iran announced it had received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 67%7%
response to its latest peace‑offer via Pakistani mediators, suggesting dialogue was still alive and nudging the market back up
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna, creating uncertainty but traders interpret the cancellation as a possible
June 30 jumps to 68%7%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna, creating uncertainty but traders interpret the cancellation as a possible “last‑minute” push for a face‑to‑face summit, lifting the
Polymarket’s market update notes that U.S.
May 31 rises to 49%1%
Defense Secretary Hegseth’s remarks on Iranian support for Houthi attacks heighten tensions and reduce market confidence that a diplomatic meeting will happen before the deadline
Iran submits a new peace proposal via Pakistani mediators;
May 31 drops to 40%8%
U.S. response is reported as “still pending,” sparking a short‑term surge in optimism
Iran’s foreign minister holds calls with regional counterparts but no U.S.
May 31 jumps to 48%8%
officials join; U.S. officials decline to comment on receiving the proposal, keeping the meeting outlook bleak
Iran submits a new proposal to mediators in Pakistan but no US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting is announced;
May 5 drops to 6%12%
US Defense Secretary’s comments on Iranian support for Houthi attacks further erode optimism
US Defense Secretary Hegseth accuses Iran of supporting Houthi attacks; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi cancels May 4 technical meeting
May 15 plunges to 12%21%
Heightened tensions from accusations and the cancellation of a scheduled technical meeting in Vienna created significant doubt about progress toward a diplomatic meeting.
Iran cancels planned May 4 diplomatic meeting citing "technical reasons"
May 31 drops to 31%12%
Iran’s cancellation of a scheduled in-person meeting confirmed no direct US-Iran diplomatic engagement, reducing market confidence in a meeting by May 31.
US announces secondary‑sanctions threat on entities buying Iranian oil/petrochemicals;
June 30 dips to 66%1%
Defense Secretary Hegseth blames Iran for Red‑Sea attacks – market perceives escalation, odds dip further
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April
April 30 dips to 0%1%
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April 30
Pakistan’s prime minister says a response to Iran’s proposal is still awaited, and no U.S.
May 31 dips to 40%1%
delegation is slated to travel to Islamabad, further lowering confidence in an imminent meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancelled the scheduled May 4 diplomatic meeting with U.S.
June 30 drops to 71%9%
officials, citing “technical reasons,” which knocked confidence in a near‑term summit
Reuters notes that Iran’s IRGC attacks commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi’s earlier statement that the strait was “completely open,” underscoring internal
May 5 dips to 9%3%
Reuters notes that Iran’s IRGC attacks commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi’s earlier statement that the strait was “completely open,” underscoring internal Iranian opposition to talks
Iranian Parliament Speaker mocks US diplomatic efforts after Axios report on stalled negotiations
May 31 drops to 47%8%
Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf publicly dismissed US-Iran negotiation reports as failed, signaling hardened Iranian stance and dampening market optimism.
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to
May 5 drops to 9%9%
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to 9% Yes
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a
May 5 dips to 9%1%
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a May 5 diplomatic meeting will not occur
Iranian police guard a rally in Tehran as the “temporary cease‑fire” is extended;
June 30 jumps to 80%9%
analysts cite “still‑alive diplomatic channel,” pushing odds up
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with US officials, citing “technical reasons,” deepening diplomatic deadlock and pushing odds
June 30 jumps to 71%5%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with US officials, citing “technical reasons,” deepening diplomatic deadlock and pushing odds down
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no
May 5 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no imminent in‑person meeting
US reviews Iranian proposal delivered via Pakistan;
April 29 drops to 1%5%
no in-person meeting planned soon; Islamabad reopens after lockdown for anticipated talks that never happened
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the market fell to 18%
Al Jazeera notes Iran’s foreign minister presents a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in Islamabad but refuses a direct meeting with U.S.
May 31 jumps to 52%9%
officials, reinforcing expectations that no bilateral meeting will occur
Iran submits a fresh negotiation proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 drops to 41%11%
the U.S. White House says it has not received or confirmed the proposal, leaving the prospect of a U.S.–Iran meeting uncertain
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a
May 31 dips to 44%4%
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a face‑to‑face diplomatic window
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market
May 31 dips to 40%4%
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market doubts
Iran’s foreign minister travels to St.
May 31 drops to 50%10%
Petersburg for talks with President Putin; no U.S. delegation is present, underscoring the lack of a U.S.–Iran face‑to‑face meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring
May 31 drops to 52%6%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring that Iran wants talks only after the Strait of Hormuz is opened
Iran’s foreign minister visits Moscow and Oman but skips any direct US engagement;
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlights the absence of any US‑Iran face‑to‑face talks amid rising tensions
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending the
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5 summit is unlikely
Iran’s Araghchi meets Russian President Putin, emphasizing strategic alliances amid stalled US talks;
April 29 drops to 6%5%
no face-to-face US-Iran meeting occurs
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not
April 30 dips to 8%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not directly with US representatives
Araghchi leaves Pakistan for Oman and Russia;
May 5 plunges to 37%32%
US‑Iran peace talks described as “on uncertain ground,” reinforcing market doubts
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further eroding market confidence
President Trump states Iran sent a “much better” offer after cancellation but it is still insufficient;
April 30 dips to 10%3%
US-Iran peace talks remain stalled with no in-person meeting planned
Araghchi meets Omani Sultan and Pakistani mediators discussing conditions including lifting US blockade;
April 29 dips to 11%1%
Trump says Iran’s new offer is “not enough,” talks remain stalled
President Trump cancels the planned U.S.
May 5 plunges to 37%16%
delegation’s trip to Pakistan, citing “infighting” in Iran and an inadequate Iranian offer
President Trump cancels US delegation’s trip to Pakistan citing inadequate Iranian offer and infighting in Iran;
April 30 plunges to 20%41%
Iranian Foreign Ministry confirms no direct US-Iran meeting scheduled, signaling diplomatic deadlock
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to
May 5 plunges to 37%34%
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to 37% Yes
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials in Islamabad, but U.S.
May 31 jumps to 60%5%
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s planned trip is cancelled by President Trump, signaling a stall in direct talks
US President Trump cancels the trip of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks, citing inadequate Iranian offer and internal Iranian leadership
May 5 plunges to 37%32%
US President Trump cancels the trip of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks, citing inadequate Iranian offer and internal Iranian leadership confusion
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states that no direct U.S.–Iran meeting is planned in Pakistan and that Iran will convey its position through Pakistani
May 5 drops to 30%7%
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states that no direct U.S.–Iran meeting is planned in Pakistan and that Iran will convey its position through Pakistani officials
Iran denies any direct meeting with US planned;
April 29 plunges to 11%51%
Araghchi leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels US envoys’ planned travel to Islamabad, signaling breakdown in direct talks
Iran offers deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz but postpones nuclear talks, leading to US skepticism
May 15 plunges to 55%26%
Iran’s proposal to reopen the strategic waterway was seen as a positive step but postponement of nuclear talks dampened hopes for imminent direct diplomacy.
US President Trump cancels envoy trip to Islamabad citing divisions within Iranian leadership
May 15 surges to 81%30%
Trump’s cancellation of the planned envoy visit to Pakistan signaled uncertainty and internal Iranian discord, causing a volatile market reaction with a sharp
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but Iran’s foreign ministry later states no meeting is
May 5 jumps to 53%13%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but Iran’s foreign ministry later states no meeting is planned, sparking market volatility
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepare to travel to Pakistan for new talks;
April 30 surges to 61%21%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad, raising hopes for resumed diplomacy
White House announces that U.S.
May 5 plunges to 53%15%
envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan on April 25 to meet Araghchi
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators;
April 29 surges to 55%19%
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner prepare to join, raising hopes for talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would
May 5 dips to 55%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would convey its positions via Pakistan
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating
May 5 plunges to 59%16%
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating stance
UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell secretly attends US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough
May 15 jumps to 74%7%
This report suggested progress in indirect talks, briefly boosting market optimism about a possible diplomatic meeting.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up to 75% Yes
U.S. and Iranian delegations conclude 21 hours of talks in Islamabad without a deal;
June 30 drops to 63%8%
media report “no breakthrough”
US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapse;
April 30 jumps to 71%11%
President Trump announces US Navy blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions and signaling stalled diplomacy
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes