Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections continue to anchor trader sentiment around a 3.75% federal funds rate by year-end 2026. The median FOMC participant projects a 3.4% midpoint after one additional 25-basis-point cut, reflecting resilient growth near 2.4%, unemployment holding near 4.4%, and core PCE inflation forecasts that edged higher to 2.7%. Persistent short-term inflation expectations, elevated oil prices, and Middle East uncertainty have tempered enthusiasm for deeper easing, while the April FOMC hold—with multiple dissents—reinforced a data-dependent stance. With the next rate decision and updated dot plot due in June, markets are pricing limited further policy adjustment through the remainder of the year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 Vol.
$6,523,396 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2,0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4,0%
15%
4.25%
4%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 Vol.
$6,523,396 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$134,363 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
2,0%
$246,025 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$454,736 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$518,453 Vol.
60%
4,0%
$1,358,628 Vol.
15%
4.25%
$413,541 Vol.
4%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,040 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections continue to anchor trader sentiment around a 3.75% federal funds rate by year-end 2026. The median FOMC participant projects a 3.4% midpoint after one additional 25-basis-point cut, reflecting resilient growth near 2.4%, unemployment holding near 4.4%, and core PCE inflation forecasts that edged higher to 2.7%. Persistent short-term inflation expectations, elevated oil prices, and Middle East uncertainty have tempered enthusiasm for deeper easing, while the April FOMC hold—with multiple dissents—reinforced a data-dependent stance. With the next rate decision and updated dot plot due in June, markets are pricing limited further policy adjustment through the remainder of the year.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$6,523,396Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections continue to anchor trader sentiment around a 3.75% federal funds rate by year-end 2026. The median FOMC participant projects a 3.4% midpoint after one additional 25-basis-point cut, reflecting resilient growth near 2.4%, unemployment holding near 4.4%, and core PCE inflation forecasts that edged higher to 2.7%. Persistent short-term inflation expectations, elevated oil prices, and Middle East uncertainty have tempered enthusiasm for deeper easing, while the April FOMC hold—with multiple dissents—reinforced a data-dependent stance. With the next rate decision and updated dot plot due in June, markets are pricing limited further policy adjustment through the remainder of the year.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,523,396Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections continue to anchor trader sentiment around a 3.75% federal funds rate by year-end 2026. The median FOMC participant projects a 3.4% midpoint after one additional 25-basis-point cut, reflecting resilient growth near 2.4%, unemployment holding near 4.4%, and core PCE inflation forecasts that edged higher to 2.7%. Persistent short-term inflation expectations, elevated oil prices, and Middle East uncertainty have tempered enthusiasm for deeper easing, while the April FOMC hold—with multiple dissents—reinforced a data-dependent stance. With the next rate decision and updated dot plot due in June, markets are pricing limited further policy adjustment through the remainder of the year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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