Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023, has reinforced trader expectations for the federal funds rate to settle at 3.75% by year-end, as reflected in the 59.7% market-implied probability. Persistent energy price pressures amid Middle East uncertainties, combined with the April FOMC's decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated dissent, have tempered optimism for further easing. With Chair Powell's term expiring in May 2026 and incoming data likely to shape the new leadership's path, markets currently price limited cuts or a steady stance through December, balancing resilient labor conditions against cooling core inflation trends at 2.8%. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings will provide key signals on whether inflation moderation supports a shift toward the 3.25%-4.0% range still holding meaningful implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.75% 59.7%
4,0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,655 Vol.
$6,523,655 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2,0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4,0%
18%
4.25%
6%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4,0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,655 Vol.
$6,523,655 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$134,363 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
2,0%
$246,062 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$454,736 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$518,453 Vol.
60%
4,0%
$1,358,661 Vol.
18%
4.25%
$413,730 Vol.
6%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,040 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023, has reinforced trader expectations for the federal funds rate to settle at 3.75% by year-end, as reflected in the 59.7% market-implied probability. Persistent energy price pressures amid Middle East uncertainties, combined with the April FOMC's decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated dissent, have tempered optimism for further easing. With Chair Powell's term expiring in May 2026 and incoming data likely to shape the new leadership's path, markets currently price limited cuts or a steady stance through December, balancing resilient labor conditions against cooling core inflation trends at 2.8%. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings will provide key signals on whether inflation moderation supports a shift toward the 3.25%-4.0% range still holding meaningful implied odds.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$6,523,655Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023, has reinforced trader expectations for the federal funds rate to settle at 3.75% by year-end, as reflected in the 59.7% market-implied probability. Persistent energy price pressures amid Middle East uncertainties, combined with the April FOMC's decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated dissent, have tempered optimism for further easing. With Chair Powell's term expiring in May 2026 and incoming data likely to shape the new leadership's path, markets currently price limited cuts or a steady stance through December, balancing resilient labor conditions against cooling core inflation trends at 2.8%. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings will provide key signals on whether inflation moderation supports a shift toward the 3.25%-4.0% range still holding meaningful implied odds.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,523,655Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023, has reinforced trader expectations for the federal funds rate to settle at 3.75% by year-end, as reflected in the 59.7% market-implied probability. Persistent energy price pressures amid Middle East uncertainties, combined with the April FOMC's decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated dissent, have tempered optimism for further easing. With Chair Powell's term expiring in May 2026 and incoming data likely to shape the new leadership's path, markets currently price limited cuts or a steady stance through December, balancing resilient labor conditions against cooling core inflation trends at 2.8%. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings will provide key signals on whether inflation moderation supports a shift toward the 3.25%-4.0% range still holding meaningful implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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