Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 removals of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation, has elevated scrutiny on remaining officials amid reports of presidential frustration over agency performance and public controversies. This environment keeps probabilities tightly clustered around Lee Zeldin, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth, and Howard Lutnick, whose positions involve high-visibility policy execution on issues such as environmental regulation, national security appointments, defense priorities, and commerce. Traders appear to weigh factors like confirmation dynamics, media attention on agency decisions, and historical patterns of mid-term adjustments without clear frontrunners emerging from primary sources or official statements. Further separation could follow Senate actions, agency-specific setbacks, or White House announcements within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMike Waltz 34.4%
Lee Zeldin 32%
Howard Lutnick 31%
John Ratcliffe 30.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Mike Waltz
34%
Lee Zeldin
32%
Howard Lutnick
31%
John Ratcliffe
31%
Linda McMahon
19%
Jamieson Greer
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
2%
Doug Burgum
1%
Pete Hegseth
-
Susie Wiles
30%
Mike Waltz 34.4%
Lee Zeldin 32%
Howard Lutnick 31%
John Ratcliffe 30.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Mike Waltz
$126 Vol.
34%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Vol.
32%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Vol.
31%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Vol.
31%
Linda McMahon
$209 Vol.
19%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Vol.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Vol.
18%
None before 2027
$226 Vol.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Vol.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Vol.
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Vol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Vol.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Vol.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Vol.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Vol.
2%
Doug Burgum
$171 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 removals of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation, has elevated scrutiny on remaining officials amid reports of presidential frustration over agency performance and public controversies. This environment keeps probabilities tightly clustered around Lee Zeldin, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth, and Howard Lutnick, whose positions involve high-visibility policy execution on issues such as environmental regulation, national security appointments, defense priorities, and commerce. Traders appear to weigh factors like confirmation dynamics, media attention on agency decisions, and historical patterns of mid-term adjustments without clear frontrunners emerging from primary sources or official statements. Further separation could follow Senate actions, agency-specific setbacks, or White House announcements within the resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$3,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 removals of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation, has elevated scrutiny on remaining officials amid reports of presidential frustration over agency performance and public controversies. This environment keeps probabilities tightly clustered around Lee Zeldin, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth, and Howard Lutnick, whose positions involve high-visibility policy execution on issues such as environmental regulation, national security appointments, defense priorities, and commerce. Traders appear to weigh factors like confirmation dynamics, media attention on agency decisions, and historical patterns of mid-term adjustments without clear frontrunners emerging from primary sources or official statements. Further separation could follow Senate actions, agency-specific setbacks, or White House announcements within the resolution window.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$3,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 removals of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation, has elevated scrutiny on remaining officials amid reports of presidential frustration over agency performance and public controversies. This environment keeps probabilities tightly clustered around Lee Zeldin, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth, and Howard Lutnick, whose positions involve high-visibility policy execution on issues such as environmental regulation, national security appointments, defense priorities, and commerce. Traders appear to weigh factors like confirmation dynamics, media attention on agency decisions, and historical patterns of mid-term adjustments without clear frontrunners emerging from primary sources or official statements. Further separation could follow Senate actions, agency-specific setbacks, or White House announcements within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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