North Korea’s May 2026 constitutional revisions, which removed all references to reunification and formally designated South Korea a permanent foreign adversary under its two-state framework, have entrenched Pyongyang’s rejection of inter-Korean dialogue. Recent missile tests, border fortifications, and repeated dismissals of Seoul’s peaceful coexistence overtures under President Lee Jae Myung further signal that North Korea prioritizes direct engagement with the United States while bypassing its southern neighbor. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline and no active official channels or invitations reported, traders assign overwhelming probability to the absence of direct talks. A sudden high-level summit announcement or third-party mediation could theoretically shift the outcome, though entrenched policy and the compressed timeline create formidable barriers to any rapid reversal.