Stable global CO2 emission trajectories and the absence of near-term revisions to the remaining carbon budget underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds against any change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026. The clock, which projects the date when cumulative emissions exhaust the budget consistent with 1.5°C (currently shown around July 2029), relies on annual updates from sources such as the Global Carbon Project and recent observational warming rates near 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. With emissions trends holding steady amid 2025–2026 data and no major new budget assessment expected before year-end, traders see little catalyst for adjustment. Upcoming 2026 emissions inventories and any late-year model refinements could provide the next signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
16% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
16% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Stable global CO2 emission trajectories and the absence of near-term revisions to the remaining carbon budget underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds against any change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026. The clock, which projects the date when cumulative emissions exhaust the budget consistent with 1.5°C (currently shown around July 2029), relies on annual updates from sources such as the Global Carbon Project and recent observational warming rates near 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. With emissions trends holding steady amid 2025–2026 data and no major new budget assessment expected before year-end, traders see little catalyst for adjustment. Upcoming 2026 emissions inventories and any late-year model refinements could provide the next signals.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volumen
$7,857Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2029Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Stable global CO2 emission trajectories and the absence of near-term revisions to the remaining carbon budget underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds against any change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026. The clock, which projects the date when cumulative emissions exhaust the budget consistent with 1.5°C (currently shown around July 2029), relies on annual updates from sources such as the Global Carbon Project and recent observational warming rates near 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. With emissions trends holding steady amid 2025–2026 data and no major new budget assessment expected before year-end, traders see little catalyst for adjustment. Upcoming 2026 emissions inventories and any late-year model refinements could provide the next signals.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$7,857Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Stable global CO2 emission trajectories and the absence of near-term revisions to the remaining carbon budget underpin the 84.5% market-implied odds against any change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026. The clock, which projects the date when cumulative emissions exhaust the budget consistent with 1.5°C (currently shown around July 2029), relies on annual updates from sources such as the Global Carbon Project and recent observational warming rates near 1.3–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. With emissions trends holding steady amid 2025–2026 data and no major new budget assessment expected before year-end, traders see little catalyst for adjustment. Upcoming 2026 emissions inventories and any late-year model refinements could provide the next signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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