Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms remains the central factor supporting the 67.5% implied probability that the House will pass articles of impeachment before January 2029. Traders weigh Democratic prospects for regaining a majority against the current Republican narrow edge, which has blocked advancement of individual-member resolutions such as H.Res.1486 introduced on August 24 and referred to the Judiciary Committee. Recent actions by Rep. Al Green and others have kept the issue visible but produced no floor votes. Historical precedent of two prior impeachments without Senate conviction informs assessments that House passage alone could satisfy the market criterion, while Senate conviction faces steeper partisan barriers. Upcoming midterm results and any escalation in investigations or legislative clashes could further shift positioning before the term concludes.