Democrats’ prospects for securing a House majority in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant driver of the 67% trader consensus that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Multiple resolutions have already been introduced in the 119th Congress citing executive actions and foreign policy conduct, while April 2026 statements during the Iran conflict triggered renewed calls from dozens of Democrats and references to the 25th Amendment. Current Republican control blocks floor action, yet a midterm reversal would enable a simple-majority vote on high crimes and misdemeanors. Traders weigh historical patterns of partisan impeachment proceedings against the narrow path to Senate conviction, with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing reflecting these institutional thresholds and calendar constraints through the remainder of the term.