Recent U.S. licensing expansions and reduced sanctions have driven Venezuela’s crude output above 1.1 million barrels per day by April 2026, up from roughly 900,000 bpd in 2025, as foreign operators resume maintenance and joint ventures. Analyst estimates from the EIA and major banks project a further lift of 300,000–500,000 bpd by year-end under sustained capital expenditure and political stability, though chronic infrastructure constraints and potential policy reversals cap near-term gains well below historical peaks. Traders are monitoring upcoming OPEC+ meetings, PDVSA production reports, and any shifts in U.S. Treasury guidance, which directly influence the market-implied odds for 2026 targets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$110,970 Vol.
28 feb 2027
1,1 millones
98%
1,2 millones
73%
1,3 millones
40%
1,4 millones
21%
1,5 millones
7%
1,7 millones
4%
2 millones
4%
$110,970 Vol.
1,1 millones
$14,523 Vol.
98%
1,2 millones
$9,230 Vol.
73%
1,3 millones
$6,900 Vol.
40%
1,4 millones
$16,848 Vol.
21%
1,5 millones
$7,998 Vol.
7%
1,7 millones
$3,757 Vol.
4%
2 millones
$12,636 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. licensing expansions and reduced sanctions have driven Venezuela’s crude output above 1.1 million barrels per day by April 2026, up from roughly 900,000 bpd in 2025, as foreign operators resume maintenance and joint ventures. Analyst estimates from the EIA and major banks project a further lift of 300,000–500,000 bpd by year-end under sustained capital expenditure and political stability, though chronic infrastructure constraints and potential policy reversals cap near-term gains well below historical peaks. Traders are monitoring upcoming OPEC+ meetings, PDVSA production reports, and any shifts in U.S. Treasury guidance, which directly influence the market-implied odds for 2026 targets.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volumen
$110,970Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. licensing expansions and reduced sanctions have driven Venezuela’s crude output above 1.1 million barrels per day by April 2026, up from roughly 900,000 bpd in 2025, as foreign operators resume maintenance and joint ventures. Analyst estimates from the EIA and major banks project a further lift of 300,000–500,000 bpd by year-end under sustained capital expenditure and political stability, though chronic infrastructure constraints and potential policy reversals cap near-term gains well below historical peaks. Traders are monitoring upcoming OPEC+ meetings, PDVSA production reports, and any shifts in U.S. Treasury guidance, which directly influence the market-implied odds for 2026 targets.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volumen
$110,970Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. licensing expansions and reduced sanctions have driven Venezuela’s crude output above 1.1 million barrels per day by April 2026, up from roughly 900,000 bpd in 2025, as foreign operators resume maintenance and joint ventures. Analyst estimates from the EIA and major banks project a further lift of 300,000–500,000 bpd by year-end under sustained capital expenditure and political stability, though chronic infrastructure constraints and potential policy reversals cap near-term gains well below historical peaks. Traders are monitoring upcoming OPEC+ meetings, PDVSA production reports, and any shifts in U.S. Treasury guidance, which directly influence the market-implied odds for 2026 targets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes