The U.S. special forces raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, remains the only large-scale military action against a Latin American government this year. Subsequent developments have centered on sustained airstrikes against suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, expanded security cooperation agreements with Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru under the Shield of the Americas framework, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba without crossing into ground operations. U.S. military resources remain heavily committed to the ongoing Iran conflict, while regional partners have authorized limited joint actions against cartels rather than supporting broader interventions. These factors have produced trader consensus that a full-scale invasion of another country is unlikely before year-end.