The 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election between Republican Barry Moore and Democrat Everett Wess is projected for moderate total turnout, with the leading 1.6M-1.7M range reflecting Alabama's low-competition environment and safe Republican positioning. Recent polls show Moore ahead by 15-20 points among likely voters, with roughly 15% undecided, limiting broad mobilization incentives in a state with a strong Republican lean and an open seat after Tommy Tuberville's retirement. Historical midterm patterns, voter registration trends, and the absence of major last-minute catalysts or adverse weather support expectations around recent cycle baselines, while final-week party outreach and early voting participation remain the primary variables that could shift totals within the narrow 1.5M-1.7M band before November 3.