Recent polling shows the Alaska U.S. Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan remains a toss-up, with first-round preferences often splitting near 46-48% amid heavy national focus on Senate control. The August 18 top-four primary produced unusually high participation of roughly 167,000 ballots, or 27.7% of registered voters, fueled by competitive statewide contests and affordability concerns. Midterm dynamics without a presidential contest at the top typically moderate general-election turnout relative to 2024 levels, while ranked-choice voting and Republican strategies on full ballot completion introduce uncertainty over mobilization. These elements keep trader expectations clustered in the mid- to high-200,000s range, with potential separation from late campaign intensity or weather impacts in the final weeks.