Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs holds a consistent lead in polling averages against Republican nominee Andy Biggs ahead of the November 3 general election, driving trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her party's nomination unopposed following the July 21 primaries, while Biggs consolidated the Republican field after defeating David Schweikert. Recent surveys, including those from Noble Predictive Insights and others through late July, show Hobbs ahead by 6 to 8 points in this battleground state, reflecting her incumbency advantage and voter preferences in head-to-head matchups. Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Democratic, with limited movement since the primaries and no major late developments shifting the race. Traders appear to weigh these polling trends and structural factors heavily in assessing the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArizona Governor Election Winner
Arizona Governor Election Winner
$66,560 Vol.
$66,560 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
88%
Republican
13%
$66,560 Vol.
$66,560 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$30,774 Vol.
88%
Republican
$35,786 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs holds a consistent lead in polling averages against Republican nominee Andy Biggs ahead of the November 3 general election, driving trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her party's nomination unopposed following the July 21 primaries, while Biggs consolidated the Republican field after defeating David Schweikert. Recent surveys, including those from Noble Predictive Insights and others through late July, show Hobbs ahead by 6 to 8 points in this battleground state, reflecting her incumbency advantage and voter preferences in head-to-head matchups. Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Democratic, with limited movement since the primaries and no major late developments shifting the race. Traders appear to weigh these polling trends and structural factors heavily in assessing the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$66,560End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs holds a consistent lead in polling averages against Republican nominee Andy Biggs ahead of the November 3 general election, driving trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her party's nomination unopposed following the July 21 primaries, while Biggs consolidated the Republican field after defeating David Schweikert. Recent surveys, including those from Noble Predictive Insights and others through late July, show Hobbs ahead by 6 to 8 points in this battleground state, reflecting her incumbency advantage and voter preferences in head-to-head matchups. Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Democratic, with limited movement since the primaries and no major late developments shifting the race. Traders appear to weigh these polling trends and structural factors heavily in assessing the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$66,560End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs holds a consistent lead in polling averages against Republican nominee Andy Biggs ahead of the November 3 general election, driving trader consensus toward a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her party's nomination unopposed following the July 21 primaries, while Biggs consolidated the Republican field after defeating David Schweikert. Recent surveys, including those from Noble Predictive Insights and others through late July, show Hobbs ahead by 6 to 8 points in this battleground state, reflecting her incumbency advantage and voter preferences in head-to-head matchups. Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Democratic, with limited movement since the primaries and no major late developments shifting the race. Traders appear to weigh these polling trends and structural factors heavily in assessing the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions