**Brazil’s Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth market shows tightly clustered probabilities across multiple bands, with 1.2%–1.4% at 49.5% and 0.3%–0.5% at 47.5%, underscoring substantial uncertainty.** The Q1 2026 print of 1.1% QoQ—well above the prior 0.3% and consensus—has anchored trader views around potential momentum carryover from household consumption, fixed investment, and government spending. However, the elevated Selic rate continues to weigh on credit and activity, while official and analyst outlooks (Trading Economics model at 0.3%, full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.6–2.3%) anticipate a clear sequential slowdown in Q2 and Q3. Key swing factors include June activity data, any further fiscal stimulus effects, and labor-market resilience versus softening real-income gains. Resolution awaits the IBGE release in early September, leaving room for last-minute revisions to shift the narrow probability distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥1,5 % 53%
1,2 %–1,4 % 50%
<0,0 % 31%
0,0 %–0,2 % 0
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
<0,0 %
21%
0,0 %–0,2 %
-
0,3 %–0,5 %
-
0,6 %–0,8 %
-
0,9 %–1,1 %
-
1,2 %–1,4 %
50%
≥1,5 %
53%
≥1,5 % 53%
1,2 %–1,4 % 50%
<0,0 % 31%
0,0 %–0,2 % 0
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
<0,0 %
$106 Vol.
21%
0,0 %–0,2 %
$70 Vol.
-
0,3 %–0,5 %
$70 Vol.
-
0,6 %–0,8 %
$69 Vol.
-
0,9 %–1,1 %
$69 Vol.
-
1,2 %–1,4 %
$101 Vol.
50%
≥1,5 %
$101 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil’s Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth market shows tightly clustered probabilities across multiple bands, with 1.2%–1.4% at 49.5% and 0.3%–0.5% at 47.5%, underscoring substantial uncertainty.**
The Q1 2026 print of 1.1% QoQ—well above the prior 0.3% and consensus—has anchored trader views around potential momentum carryover from household consumption, fixed investment, and government spending. However, the elevated Selic rate continues to weigh on credit and activity, while official and analyst outlooks (Trading Economics model at 0.3%, full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.6–2.3%) anticipate a clear sequential slowdown in Q2 and Q3. Key swing factors include June activity data, any further fiscal stimulus effects, and labor-market resilience versus softening real-income gains. Resolution awaits the IBGE release in early September, leaving room for last-minute revisions to shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Marché ouvert : Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$587Marché ouvert
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Brazil’s Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth market shows tightly clustered probabilities across multiple bands, with 1.2%–1.4% at 49.5% and 0.3%–0.5% at 47.5%, underscoring substantial uncertainty.**
The Q1 2026 print of 1.1% QoQ—well above the prior 0.3% and consensus—has anchored trader views around potential momentum carryover from household consumption, fixed investment, and government spending. However, the elevated Selic rate continues to weigh on credit and activity, while official and analyst outlooks (Trading Economics model at 0.3%, full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.6–2.3%) anticipate a clear sequential slowdown in Q2 and Q3. Key swing factors include June activity data, any further fiscal stimulus effects, and labor-market resilience versus softening real-income gains. Resolution awaits the IBGE release in early September, leaving room for last-minute revisions to shift the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$587Marché ouvert
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Brazil’s Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth market shows tightly clustered probabilities across multiple bands, with 1.2%–1.4% at 49.5% and 0.3%–0.5% at 47.5%, underscoring substantial uncertainty.** The Q1 2026 print of 1.1% QoQ—well above the prior 0.3% and consensus—has anchored trader views around potential momentum carryover from household consumption, fixed investment, and government spending. However, the elevated Selic rate continues to weigh on credit and activity, while official and analyst outlooks (Trading Economics model at 0.3%, full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.6–2.3%) anticipate a clear sequential slowdown in Q2 and Q3. Key swing factors include June activity data, any further fiscal stimulus effects, and labor-market resilience versus softening real-income gains. Resolution awaits the IBGE release in early September, leaving room for last-minute revisions to shift the narrow probability distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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