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Politics·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election

icon for Brazil Presidential Election
Politics·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 61.1%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos <1%

Jair Bolsonaro <1%

Polymarket

$153,207,264 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 61.1%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos <1%

Jair Bolsonaro <1%

Polymarket

$153,207,264 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$11,431,091 Vol.

61%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$11,768,928 Vol.

39%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$14,029,776 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$7,294,763 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$6,485,355 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$14,084,598 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$7,544,953 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$10,370,588 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$10,452,679 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$10,458,754 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$7,651,000 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$7,651,139 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$5,590,133 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$8,006,907 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$4,966,808 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$4,025,581 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$2,422,918 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$3,973,374 Vol.

<1%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$4,997,920 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-September show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff simulations, with margins inside sampling error across firms like Quaest, Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, and AtlasIntel. Lula leads narrowly in most first-round scenarios but faces high rejection rates and voter fatigue after seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flávio Bolsonaro, nominated by the Liberal Party in July with endorsements from figures like Javier Milei, benefits from right-wing consolidation and his father's legacy despite Jair Bolsonaro's legal restrictions. Broader factors include persistent polarization, corruption investigations touching both camps, and economic concerns, which have narrowed Lula's earlier advantages. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Flávio the higher probability amid this tight contest ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$153,207,264
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-September show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff simulations, with margins inside sampling error across firms like Quaest, Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, and AtlasIntel. Lula leads narrowly in most first-round scenarios but faces high rejection rates and voter fatigue after seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flávio Bolsonaro, nominated by the Liberal Party in July with endorsements from figures like Javier Milei, benefits from right-wing consolidation and his father's legacy despite Jair Bolsonaro's legal restrictions. Broader factors include persistent polarization, corruption investigations touching both camps, and economic concerns, which have narrowed Lula's earlier advantages. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Flávio the higher probability amid this tight contest ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$153,207,264
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

68%
icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

70%
icon for Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

42%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 61%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $153.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.