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icon for Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Politics·UK

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

icon for Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Politics·UK

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Binface 10–20% 49%

Binface 20–30% 37%

Binface <10% 9%

Binface 30–40% 5.1%

Polymarket

$406,372 Vol.

Binface 10–20% 49%

Binface 20–30% 37%

Binface <10% 9%

Binface 30–40% 5.1%

Polymarket

$406,372 Vol.

Binface <10%

$168,673 Vol.

9%

Binface 10–20%

$57,789 Vol.

49%

Binface 20–30%

$74,627 Vol.

37%

Binface 30–40%

$64,039 Vol.

5%

Binface 40%+

$41,249 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).A recent Survation constituency poll showing Count Binface at 20% against Nigel Farage's 73% has anchored trader expectations for the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, where major parties are boycotting the contest and elevating the satirical candidate as the primary challenger. Binface's national media profile and novelty appeal have sustained visibility, with some UK-wide surveys indicating broader sympathy, yet local results and historical precedents for fringe candidates continue to cap projections. These factors position the 10–20% and 20–30% bands as the consensus outcomes, reflecting the gap between polling signals and the typical low-single-digit performance of novelty campaigns in similar by-elections.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$406,372
End Date
Aug 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).A recent Survation constituency poll showing Count Binface at 20% against Nigel Farage's 73% has anchored trader expectations for the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, where major parties are boycotting the contest and elevating the satirical candidate as the primary challenger. Binface's national media profile and novelty appeal have sustained visibility, with some UK-wide surveys indicating broader sympathy, yet local results and historical precedents for fringe candidates continue to cap projections. These factors position the 10–20% and 20–30% bands as the consensus outcomes, reflecting the gap between polling signals and the typical low-single-digit performance of novelty campaigns in similar by-elections.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$406,372
End Date
Aug 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

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Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Binface 10–20%" at 49%, followed by "Binface 20–30%" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %" has generated $406.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %" is "Binface 10–20%" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Binface 20–30%" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.