Major party boycotts and limited opposition candidates have left the Clacton by-election centered on Reform UK's Nigel Farage, with traders assigning equal implied probabilities across wide victory margin bands and alternatives such as Count Binface. This pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout levels, the scale of any residual protest or independent votes, and the absence of traditional challengers that historically compress margins in safe seats. Recent confirmation of the writ and Farage's decision to stand again reinforce his frontrunner status, yet the even distribution across outcomes highlights how low-visibility campaigning and variable voter engagement could still produce divergent results. Scheduled parliamentary processes and any late candidate declarations remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarage 20-40% 46%
Farage <20% 46%
Farage 40-60% 45%
Farage 60%+ 45%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
45%
Farage 40-60%
45%
Farage 20-40%
46%
Farage <20%
46%
Count Binface
7%
Other
1%
Farage 20-40% 46%
Farage <20% 46%
Farage 40-60% 45%
Farage 60%+ 45%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
$0 Vol.
45%
Farage 40-60%
$0 Vol.
45%
Farage 20-40%
$0 Vol.
46%
Farage <20%
$0 Vol.
46%
Count Binface
$0 Vol.
7%
Other
$558 Vol.
1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Major party boycotts and limited opposition candidates have left the Clacton by-election centered on Reform UK's Nigel Farage, with traders assigning equal implied probabilities across wide victory margin bands and alternatives such as Count Binface. This pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout levels, the scale of any residual protest or independent votes, and the absence of traditional challengers that historically compress margins in safe seats. Recent confirmation of the writ and Farage's decision to stand again reinforce his frontrunner status, yet the even distribution across outcomes highlights how low-visibility campaigning and variable voter engagement could still produce divergent results. Scheduled parliamentary processes and any late candidate declarations remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the final margin.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Volume
$558End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Major party boycotts and limited opposition candidates have left the Clacton by-election centered on Reform UK's Nigel Farage, with traders assigning equal implied probabilities across wide victory margin bands and alternatives such as Count Binface. This pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout levels, the scale of any residual protest or independent votes, and the absence of traditional challengers that historically compress margins in safe seats. Recent confirmation of the writ and Farage's decision to stand again reinforce his frontrunner status, yet the even distribution across outcomes highlights how low-visibility campaigning and variable voter engagement could still produce divergent results. Scheduled parliamentary processes and any late candidate declarations remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the final margin.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$558End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Major party boycotts and limited opposition candidates have left the Clacton by-election centered on Reform UK's Nigel Farage, with traders assigning equal implied probabilities across wide victory margin bands and alternatives such as Count Binface. This pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout levels, the scale of any residual protest or independent votes, and the absence of traditional challengers that historically compress margins in safe seats. Recent confirmation of the writ and Farage's decision to stand again reinforce his frontrunner status, yet the even distribution across outcomes highlights how low-visibility campaigning and variable voter engagement could still produce divergent results. Scheduled parliamentary processes and any late candidate declarations remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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