Skip to main content
icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 38%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 38%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$3,895 Vol.

38%

John Larson

$699 Vol.

41%

Ruth Fortune

$848 Vol.

4%

Jillian Gilchrest

$1,817 Vol.

2%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,521 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Luke Bronin's upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the Connecticut Democratic Party's 1st Congressional District convention on May 11—securing 51.6% to 48.4% on the second ballot—has intensified the August 11 Democratic primary race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Larson slightly ahead at 41% implied probability amid incumbency advantages like name recognition and committee seniority.** The razor-thin delegate vote signals intraparty divisions, possibly over Larson's age (77) and past health episode, while former Hartford Mayor Bronin's local executive experience and fundraising parity bolster his challenge. Absent public polls, the contest remains fluid; separation could arise from further endorsements, FEC reports, debates, or early voting trends in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Luke Bronin's upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the Connecticut Democratic Party's 1st Congressional District convention on May 11—securing 51.6% to 48.4% on the second ballot—has intensified the August 11 Democratic primary race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Larson slightly ahead at 41% implied probability amid incumbency advantages like name recognition and committee seniority.** The razor-thin delegate vote signals intraparty divisions, possibly over Larson's age (77) and past health episode, while former Hartford Mayor Bronin's local executive experience and fundraising parity bolster his challenge. Absent public polls, the contest remains fluid; separation could arise from further endorsements, FEC reports, debates, or early voting trends in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

55%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

31%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

38%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Larson" at 41%, followed by "Luke Bronin" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "John Larson" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.