Persistent supply constraints on NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs, combined with surging AI training and inference demand, underpin the market's 57.5% implied probability for $7.00+ per GPU-hour on the Ornn index at year-end 2026. Median on-demand rates currently sit near $6.15–$6.52 across providers, with the Ornn transaction-based index recently settling at $7.03 after a 13.9% monthly gain. Recent actions such as Nebius raising B200 rates to $8.50 effective October 1 and hyperscaler premiums above $14 reinforce upward pressure, while neocloud spot floors near $3.20–$3.75 highlight segmentation but limited overall relief. Capacity ramps remain constrained by TSMC packaging and HBM3e limits through late 2026, with no major demand-softening signals yet. Key swing factors ahead include additional neocloud deployments, frontier model launches, and potential B300 overlap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$7.00+ 57%
$6.50-$7.00 8.5%
$5.50-$6.00 7%
$6.00-$6.50 6%
$75,795 Vol.
$75,795 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.00
1%
$3.00-$3.50
3%
$3.50-$4.00
4%
$4.00-$4.50
4%
$4.50-$5.00
2%
$5.00-$5.50
1%
$5.50-$6.00
7%
$6.00-$6.50
6%
$6.50-$7.00
9%
$7.00+
57%
$7.00+ 57%
$6.50-$7.00 8.5%
$5.50-$6.00 7%
$6.00-$6.50 6%
$75,795 Vol.
$75,795 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.00
$3,166 Vol.
1%
$3.00-$3.50
$3,487 Vol.
3%
$3.50-$4.00
$3,973 Vol.
4%
$4.00-$4.50
$4,516 Vol.
4%
$4.50-$5.00
$11,716 Vol.
2%
$5.00-$5.50
$8,487 Vol.
1%
$5.50-$6.00
$6,700 Vol.
7%
$6.00-$6.50
$12,606 Vol.
6%
$6.50-$7.00
$6,163 Vol.
9%
$7.00+
$14,981 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Persistent supply constraints on NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs, combined with surging AI training and inference demand, underpin the market's 57.5% implied probability for $7.00+ per GPU-hour on the Ornn index at year-end 2026. Median on-demand rates currently sit near $6.15–$6.52 across providers, with the Ornn transaction-based index recently settling at $7.03 after a 13.9% monthly gain. Recent actions such as Nebius raising B200 rates to $8.50 effective October 1 and hyperscaler premiums above $14 reinforce upward pressure, while neocloud spot floors near $3.20–$3.75 highlight segmentation but limited overall relief. Capacity ramps remain constrained by TSMC packaging and HBM3e limits through late 2026, with no major demand-softening signals yet. Key swing factors ahead include additional neocloud deployments, frontier model launches, and potential B300 overlap.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$75,795End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Persistent supply constraints on NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs, combined with surging AI training and inference demand, underpin the market's 57.5% implied probability for $7.00+ per GPU-hour on the Ornn index at year-end 2026. Median on-demand rates currently sit near $6.15–$6.52 across providers, with the Ornn transaction-based index recently settling at $7.03 after a 13.9% monthly gain. Recent actions such as Nebius raising B200 rates to $8.50 effective October 1 and hyperscaler premiums above $14 reinforce upward pressure, while neocloud spot floors near $3.20–$3.75 highlight segmentation but limited overall relief. Capacity ramps remain constrained by TSMC packaging and HBM3e limits through late 2026, with no major demand-softening signals yet. Key swing factors ahead include additional neocloud deployments, frontier model launches, and potential B300 overlap.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$75,795End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent supply constraints on NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs, combined with surging AI training and inference demand, underpin the market's 57.5% implied probability for $7.00+ per GPU-hour on the Ornn index at year-end 2026. Median on-demand rates currently sit near $6.15–$6.52 across providers, with the Ornn transaction-based index recently settling at $7.03 after a 13.9% monthly gain. Recent actions such as Nebius raising B200 rates to $8.50 effective October 1 and hyperscaler premiums above $14 reinforce upward pressure, while neocloud spot floors near $3.20–$3.75 highlight segmentation but limited overall relief. Capacity ramps remain constrained by TSMC packaging and HBM3e limits through late 2026, with no major demand-softening signals yet. Key swing factors ahead include additional neocloud deployments, frontier model launches, and potential B300 overlap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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