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Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?

icon for Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?

Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 99.4%

Michael <1%

Mother Mary <1%

Wasteland Cop <1%

Polymarket

$253,597 Vol.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 99.4%

Michael <1%

Mother Mary <1%

Wasteland Cop <1%

Polymarket

$253,597 Vol.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$33,156 Vol.

99%

Michael

$98,712 Vol.

1%

Mother Mary

$10,277 Vol.

<1%

Wasteland Cop

$54,349 Vol.

<1%

You, Me & Tuscany

$27,107 Vol.

<1%

The Whistler

$22,207 Vol.

<1%

Lorne

$7,789 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's dominant domestic box office trajectory, with over $413 million grossed by early May following its explosive $131 million April 1 opening, underpins trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for topping April releases. Building on the franchise's billion-dollar precedent from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, its family-friendly animation, stellar word-of-mouth, and sustained legs through multiple #1 weekends have created an insurmountable lead amid competition from later arrivals like the Michael Jackson biopic, which opened to a record $97 million for a musical biopic but trails by $150 million-plus with only weeks left before May 31 resolution. Smaller April titles like Mother Mary (under $3 million) and indies such as Wasteland Cop pose no threat. Realistic upsets would require unprecedented Michael multipliers from repeat viewings or a Mario collapse due to controversy—scenarios at odds with historical family tentpole patterns.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$253,597
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 5:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's dominant domestic box office trajectory, with over $413 million grossed by early May following its explosive $131 million April 1 opening, underpins trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for topping April releases. Building on the franchise's billion-dollar precedent from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, its family-friendly animation, stellar word-of-mouth, and sustained legs through multiple #1 weekends have created an insurmountable lead amid competition from later arrivals like the Michael Jackson biopic, which opened to a record $97 million for a musical biopic but trails by $150 million-plus with only weeks left before May 31 resolution. Smaller April titles like Mother Mary (under $3 million) and indies such as Wasteland Cop pose no threat. Realistic upsets would require unprecedented Michael multipliers from repeat viewings or a Mario collapse due to controversy—scenarios at odds with historical family tentpole patterns.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$253,597
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 5:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 99%, followed by "Michael" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?" has generated $253.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?" is "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.