Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly flow over central Spain on September 11, supporting daytime highs near 30–31 °C in Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 31 °C (55.5 %) and 30 °C (30.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of limited model spread and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Current conditions show a warming trend after cooler, rain-affected days earlier in the week, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble means placing the maximum comfortably above the September climatological average of ~27.5 °C. Updated short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 56%
30°C 33%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
6%
30°C
37%
31°C
56%
32°C
9%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 56%
30°C 33%
32°C 9%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$9 Vol.
6%
30°C
$158 Vol.
37%
31°C
$882 Vol.
56%
32°C
$0 Vol.
9%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly flow over central Spain on September 11, supporting daytime highs near 30–31 °C in Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 31 °C (55.5 %) and 30 °C (30.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of limited model spread and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Current conditions show a warming trend after cooler, rain-affected days earlier in the week, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble means placing the maximum comfortably above the September climatological average of ~27.5 °C. Updated short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,049End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly flow over central Spain on September 11, supporting daytime highs near 30–31 °C in Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 31 °C (55.5 %) and 30 °C (30.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of limited model spread and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Current conditions show a warming trend after cooler, rain-affected days earlier in the week, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble means placing the maximum comfortably above the September climatological average of ~27.5 °C. Updated short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,049End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs indicate clear skies and light southerly flow over central Spain on September 11, supporting daytime highs near 30–31 °C in Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 31 °C (55.5 %) and 30 °C (30.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of limited model spread and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Current conditions show a warming trend after cooler, rain-affected days earlier in the week, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble means placing the maximum comfortably above the September climatological average of ~27.5 °C. Updated short-range forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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