**Trader consensus places near-certain odds on Madrid’s lowest temperature for September 10 reaching 11°C or below, reflecting model consensus and early observational data pointing to strong overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** High-pressure dominance and dry conditions have promoted efficient heat loss after sunset, with surface temperatures dropping steadily through the pre-dawn hours as confirmed by station reports and short-range guidance from agencies tracking the Iberian Peninsula. Historical September minima in Madrid average near 15–16°C, so this episode represents a notable negative departure driven by the current synoptic pattern. The market-implied probability remains robust given the narrow uncertainty range in the final hours before official daily minimums are recorded, though an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to southerly winds could limit further cooling and keep the low marginally above the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
11°C or below 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
$227 Vol.
100%
12°C
$244 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$144 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$279 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$52 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus places near-certain odds on Madrid’s lowest temperature for September 10 reaching 11°C or below, reflecting model consensus and early observational data pointing to strong overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.**
High-pressure dominance and dry conditions have promoted efficient heat loss after sunset, with surface temperatures dropping steadily through the pre-dawn hours as confirmed by station reports and short-range guidance from agencies tracking the Iberian Peninsula. Historical September minima in Madrid average near 15–16°C, so this episode represents a notable negative departure driven by the current synoptic pattern. The market-implied probability remains robust given the narrow uncertainty range in the final hours before official daily minimums are recorded, though an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to southerly winds could limit further cooling and keep the low marginally above the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,216End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus places near-certain odds on Madrid’s lowest temperature for September 10 reaching 11°C or below, reflecting model consensus and early observational data pointing to strong overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.**
High-pressure dominance and dry conditions have promoted efficient heat loss after sunset, with surface temperatures dropping steadily through the pre-dawn hours as confirmed by station reports and short-range guidance from agencies tracking the Iberian Peninsula. Historical September minima in Madrid average near 15–16°C, so this episode represents a notable negative departure driven by the current synoptic pattern. The market-implied probability remains robust given the narrow uncertainty range in the final hours before official daily minimums are recorded, though an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to southerly winds could limit further cooling and keep the low marginally above the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,216End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus places near-certain odds on Madrid’s lowest temperature for September 10 reaching 11°C or below, reflecting model consensus and early observational data pointing to strong overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** High-pressure dominance and dry conditions have promoted efficient heat loss after sunset, with surface temperatures dropping steadily through the pre-dawn hours as confirmed by station reports and short-range guidance from agencies tracking the Iberian Peninsula. Historical September minima in Madrid average near 15–16°C, so this episode represents a notable negative departure driven by the current synoptic pattern. The market-implied probability remains robust given the narrow uncertainty range in the final hours before official daily minimums are recorded, though an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to southerly winds could limit further cooling and keep the low marginally above the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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