**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s September 9 minimum temperature centers on 17–19 °C, with those three outcomes holding 46–48 % implied probability each while lower or higher values remain marginal.** Official forecasts from AEMET and the Met Office point to a daytime maximum near 26–27 °C followed by an overnight low of roughly 14 °C under clearing skies after early weak rain and persistent northeasterly flow. Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 16.5 °C, so the current setup represents a modest cool anomaly driven by reduced daytime heating, increased cloud cover and precipitation early in the period, and enhanced long-wave radiative cooling once skies clear. Key differentiating factors among the tightly bunched 17–19 °C outcomes include the precise timing and extent of cloud dissipation overnight, boundary-layer wind speeds (currently light to moderate from the northeast), and the local dew-point depression that governs how efficiently the surface can radiate heat. A slightly slower clearance or marginally stronger mixing would favor the upper end of that range, while faster clearing and calmer conditions would push toward the lower end. With the night still unfolding, fresh model runs and real-time observations from stations such as Madrid-Barajas continue to refine the exact minimum, keeping market probabilities clustered around the most probable observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
19°C 52%
18°C 44%
16°C 9%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
9%
17°C
7%
18°C
44%
19°C
52%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 52%
18°C 44%
16°C 9%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
15°C or below
$80 Vol.
1%
16°C
$48 Vol.
9%
17°C
$16 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
44%
19°C
$23 Vol.
52%
20°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$68 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,321 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s September 9 minimum temperature centers on 17–19 °C, with those three outcomes holding 46–48 % implied probability each while lower or higher values remain marginal.**
Official forecasts from AEMET and the Met Office point to a daytime maximum near 26–27 °C followed by an overnight low of roughly 14 °C under clearing skies after early weak rain and persistent northeasterly flow. Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 16.5 °C, so the current setup represents a modest cool anomaly driven by reduced daytime heating, increased cloud cover and precipitation early in the period, and enhanced long-wave radiative cooling once skies clear.
Key differentiating factors among the tightly bunched 17–19 °C outcomes include the precise timing and extent of cloud dissipation overnight, boundary-layer wind speeds (currently light to moderate from the northeast), and the local dew-point depression that governs how efficiently the surface can radiate heat. A slightly slower clearance or marginally stronger mixing would favor the upper end of that range, while faster clearing and calmer conditions would push toward the lower end.
With the night still unfolding, fresh model runs and real-time observations from stations such as Madrid-Barajas continue to refine the exact minimum, keeping market probabilities clustered around the most probable observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,533End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s September 9 minimum temperature centers on 17–19 °C, with those three outcomes holding 46–48 % implied probability each while lower or higher values remain marginal.**
Official forecasts from AEMET and the Met Office point to a daytime maximum near 26–27 °C followed by an overnight low of roughly 14 °C under clearing skies after early weak rain and persistent northeasterly flow. Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 16.5 °C, so the current setup represents a modest cool anomaly driven by reduced daytime heating, increased cloud cover and precipitation early in the period, and enhanced long-wave radiative cooling once skies clear.
Key differentiating factors among the tightly bunched 17–19 °C outcomes include the precise timing and extent of cloud dissipation overnight, boundary-layer wind speeds (currently light to moderate from the northeast), and the local dew-point depression that governs how efficiently the surface can radiate heat. A slightly slower clearance or marginally stronger mixing would favor the upper end of that range, while faster clearing and calmer conditions would push toward the lower end.
With the night still unfolding, fresh model runs and real-time observations from stations such as Madrid-Barajas continue to refine the exact minimum, keeping market probabilities clustered around the most probable observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,533End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s September 9 minimum temperature centers on 17–19 °C, with those three outcomes holding 46–48 % implied probability each while lower or higher values remain marginal.** Official forecasts from AEMET and the Met Office point to a daytime maximum near 26–27 °C followed by an overnight low of roughly 14 °C under clearing skies after early weak rain and persistent northeasterly flow. Historical climatology for the date shows an average low of 16.5 °C, so the current setup represents a modest cool anomaly driven by reduced daytime heating, increased cloud cover and precipitation early in the period, and enhanced long-wave radiative cooling once skies clear. Key differentiating factors among the tightly bunched 17–19 °C outcomes include the precise timing and extent of cloud dissipation overnight, boundary-layer wind speeds (currently light to moderate from the northeast), and the local dew-point depression that governs how efficiently the surface can radiate heat. A slightly slower clearance or marginally stronger mixing would favor the upper end of that range, while faster clearing and calmer conditions would push toward the lower end. With the night still unfolding, fresh model runs and real-time observations from stations such as Madrid-Barajas continue to refine the exact minimum, keeping market probabilities clustered around the most probable observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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