Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 2 indicate a daytime high near 33°C with an 80% rain chance, aligning with trader focus on the 31–33°C cluster. The southwest monsoon drives elevated humidity and frequent cloud cover that typically caps afternoon peaks, while scattered showers can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model consensus from long-range guidance places the most likely range at 30–34°C, with differentiation hinging on exact timing of convection and any localized sea-breeze effects near Manila Bay. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, yet day-to-day variability from monsoon bursts creates the narrow market spreads observed. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 2?
32°C 27%
33°C 27%
31°C 20%
34°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
11%
31°C
20%
32°C
27%
33°C
27%
34°C
16%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
2%
32°C 27%
33°C 27%
31°C 20%
34°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10 Vol.
1%
28°C
$25 Vol.
2%
29°C
$20 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
11%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C
$0 Vol.
27%
33°C
$49 Vol.
27%
34°C
$1 Vol.
16%
35°C
$373 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 2 indicate a daytime high near 33°C with an 80% rain chance, aligning with trader focus on the 31–33°C cluster. The southwest monsoon drives elevated humidity and frequent cloud cover that typically caps afternoon peaks, while scattered showers can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model consensus from long-range guidance places the most likely range at 30–34°C, with differentiation hinging on exact timing of convection and any localized sea-breeze effects near Manila Bay. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, yet day-to-day variability from monsoon bursts creates the narrow market spreads observed. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$488End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 2 indicate a daytime high near 33°C with an 80% rain chance, aligning with trader focus on the 31–33°C cluster. The southwest monsoon drives elevated humidity and frequent cloud cover that typically caps afternoon peaks, while scattered showers can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model consensus from long-range guidance places the most likely range at 30–34°C, with differentiation hinging on exact timing of convection and any localized sea-breeze effects near Manila Bay. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, yet day-to-day variability from monsoon bursts creates the narrow market spreads observed. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$488End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 2 indicate a daytime high near 33°C with an 80% rain chance, aligning with trader focus on the 31–33°C cluster. The southwest monsoon drives elevated humidity and frequent cloud cover that typically caps afternoon peaks, while scattered showers can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating. Model consensus from long-range guidance places the most likely range at 30–34°C, with differentiation hinging on exact timing of convection and any localized sea-breeze effects near Manila Bay. Historical August averages hover around 31°C, yet day-to-day variability from monsoon bursts creates the narrow market spreads observed. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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