Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a maximum temperature of 25–26 °C in Milan on September 29, driven by persistent high pressure, light easterly flow, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor diurnal heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation. Official guidance shows afternoon peaks near 25 °C under stable conditions, with limited model spread supporting the narrow 24–26 °C band that dominates market-implied odds. Late-September climatology for the Po Valley places average highs around 24 °C, so current warmth reflects above-normal radiative warming under anticyclonic subsidence. With resolution based on the official Milan station observation, traders are weighting the most probable single-value outcomes accordingly ahead of final model runs and real-time data.